Maritime Forces and Ukraine Crisis

Russian Navy Cruisers Positioned to Counter U.S., French and Italian Carrier Groups in the Mediterranean

Slava-class guided-missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov departs Severomorsk. Russian MoD Photo

Three Russian guided-missile cruisers have been arrayed across the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to counter three NATO carrier strike groups, causing concern in the Pentagon, a U.S. defense official told
USNI News on 22 February.  As of 21 February, the three Slava-class cruisers were operating in and around the Aegean Sea – RTS Moskva (121) in the Black Sea, RFS Varyag (011) south of Italy and RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) off the coast of Syria, near Russia’s naval base in Tartus.

Moskva is based in the Black Sea, while Marshal Ustinov traveled from the Northern Fleet and Varyag from the Pacific Fleet. Ustinov and Varyag entered the Mediterranean from opposite ends earlier this month.
The three 11,500-ton Slavas were designed around launchers that can hold 16 SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missiles – each about the size of a telephone pole. Developed in the 1970s, the Slavas and the
Sandboxes were designed to take on U.S. and NATO aircraft carriers by overwhelming them with a barrage of high-speed cruise missiles to sink ships. The position of the cruisers around the Aegean is a complication for the U.S., Italian and French carrier strike groups that have been operating in the Mediterranean the last several weeks.

USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), its escorts and Carrier Air Wing 1 have been tasked by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin since late December to remain on station in the region, as tensions between the West and Russia have been inflamed over Russian troops massed at the Russian border.  Italian Navy F-35B aircraft carrier ITS Cavour (CVH-550) and French Navy carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91) and their escorts are also operating in the Mediterranean. As the Russians have massed naval assets in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the U.S. has surged additional guided-missile cruiser and destroyers to U.S. 6th Fleet.

As of 22 February, the U.S. has about a dozen guided-missile warships operating in the region, USNI News understands. Four East Coast guided-missile destroyers – USS Donald Cook (DDG-75), USS Mitscher (DDG-57), USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Gonzalez (DDG-66) – left the U.S. last month as independent deployers. “Throughout their deployment, they will participate in a range of maritime activities in support of the U.S. 6th Fleet and our NATO allies”.  Those ships joined the forward-deployed USS Ross (DDG-71), USS Roosevelt (DDG-80), USS Porter (DDG-78) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), and the escorts of the Harry S. Truman CSG. While the Russian weapons appear imposing, the Aegis cruisers and destroyers have more sophisticated missile defense systems that outmatch the 1970s and 1980s-era Russian weapons.

The risk to the U.S. and NATO ships is if the missile defenders are overwhelmed with the number of weapons the Russians fire and the U.S. and NATO ships run out of interceptors, USNI News understands. Last week, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday said the U.S. Navy was prepared to interact with the Russian Navy in the region. “We operate in and around the Russians and the Chinese all the time. So this is nothing new,” he said on 18 February when asked about the Russian cruisers by reporters. “Given this current situation, the chance for miscalculation is greater. That’s why we train to a very high standard so that when we find our ships in situations like this the [commanders] that we act in a way that’s not provocative and that we communicate very clearly that we’re not cowboys out there. Our intentions are to be responsible professionals out there.” Meanwhile, as a response to Russia’s declaration that Ukraine regions Donetsk and Luhansk are independent republics, the Pentagon is sending more forces to NATO’s eastern front. These forces include an infantry battalion of 800 troops heading to the Baltics, the repositioning of eight F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighters further east, 20 AH-64 attack helicopters moving to the Baltics region and 12 AH-64 helicopters heading to Poland, according to a senior defense official.

Source: USNI News

 

22 February.

The Russian Navy’s build-up in the Black Sea now appears largely complete. More warships may arrive in the next few days, but the core is already in place. Russia has deployed key naval assets, thousands of miles from their bases in the Arctic and Pacific, to positions near Ukraine. Outside the Black Sea, in the Mediterranean, more naval forces are ready. These can be viewed as an outer layer of defense, primarily against NATO involvement. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been bolstered by amphibious landing ships and combatants from the Arctic, Baltic, Pacific and Caspian. Earlier this month six amphibious landing ships, normally based in the Arctic and Baltic Seas, also moved to the Black Sea.

Some units, including missile corvettes and landing ships, have recently moved to the Sea of Azov. This restricted, shallow, body of water places them adjacent to the city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region. However this movement may be seen as a diversion, or minor force. The majority of Russia’s landing ships and other assets remain in the main part of the Black Sea. This threatens Ukraine’s southern coast including the strategic city of Odessa. There are too few landing ships to suggest that amphibious landings would be the primary means of invasion. But they could complement other thrusts. Some landing ships have been observed loading tanks. And they could be used to provide strategic reinforcements as a land-invasion progresses. Or to resupply any coastal enclaves which develop. The landing ships and some warships have briefly made headlines. But a stronger indicator of war preparations may be the fleet auxiliaries. These are easily overlooked by observers but their locations may be significant. Like setting up field hospitals on land, moving fleet auxillaries may tell a different story to the
official narrative.

On February 17 Russia appeared to pre-position two repair ships, one either side of Crimea. The Project 304 Amur Class repair and depot ships perform urgent repairs on the high seas. In essence, combat repairs. This is not a capability which is ordinarily needed during drills. One ship, PM-138, was observed in Lake Donuzlav on the West coast. This lake has immediate access to the sea, and is a safe harbor to perform emergency battle repairs in. The other, PM-56, was similarly positioned near Feodosia on the east side of Crimea. PM-56 has since moved further east, possibly in
support of units in the Sea of Azov. But we still consider its activity as indicative of pre-staging.

Other Russian warships and auxiliaries are positioned west of Crimea, near the Ukrainian coast. These are likely to include the Admiral Grigorovich Class frigate Admiral Essen and other combatants. It also includes the Yug Class survey ship Donuzlav which appears to be being used for intelligence gathering. The largest surface combatant currently in the Black Sea is the Slava Class cruiser Moskva. This is an impressive warship, built during the Cold War, and are still formidable today. The Slavas are armed with powerful P-1000 Vulkan long-ranged supersonic anti-ship missiles. The Vulkan missiles are the most visible weapon, carried in ginormous tubes along each side of the ship.  But there are few targets for these in the Black Sea. Hidden beneath the decks are S-300F air-defense missile.  The ship’s S-300F missiles will be able to penetrate Ukrainian airspace in areas not covered from land.  Together with land-based S-400 missile they provide layers of defense to other warships performing combat duties.

The surface combatants are complemented by 4 Improved Kilo Class submarines. These relatively new boats have previously been active off Syria, where they launched cruise missiles. Each submarine can only carry a few Kalibr cruise missiles, but it offers a first-night strategic strike capability. Some of these boats have been observed loading cruise missiles in recent weeks. Immediately beyond the Black Sea, in the Mediterranean, Russia has amassed more warships, submarines and aircraft. These forces have a more anti-ship focus, and are tying up significant NATO forces. Importantly they threaten NATO Aircraft Carriers in the scenario of limited air intervention.

The eastern Med is prowled by two more Slava class cruisers, with their escorts. For a time it had looked like these might also move to the Black Sea but that no longer appears to be the case. There are also two more Improved Kilo Class submarines and a Bastion-P battery. This is armed with the formidable P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missile. The Bastion-P system has recently been observed at a Russian base in Tartus on the Syrian coast. Tu-22M3 Backfire-C and MiG-31K Foxhound aircraft have been deployed to Syria. These carry the Kh-22 supersonic anti-ship missile and Kinzhal hypersonic missile respectively. Although seen as untested, Russia maintains that the Kinzhal can hit maritime targets. By implication, aircraft carriers. Flanker fighters and Il-38 May maritime patrol aircraft are also present.

The naval aspect of the build-up was previously described as drills. That seems almost forgotten now. And anyway the build-up has always looked like invasion preparations to many observers. If it was ever only drills, then it was designed to look like an invasion.  These things take a long time prepare. Maybe because of this people can become desensitized to it. Social Media and the 24 hour news cycle quickly moves on or seeks out some new angle. Yet the methodical preparations continue in plain sight. Invasion appears ever more certain.

Source: NavalNews

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