Courtesy of Maritime News 26 Jan 24
In 2020 we wrote a piece asking if the UK was getting “a pale imitation of Carrier Strike?” Three years on, we look again at whether the carriers are truly ready to be deployed on meaningful operations.
Strategic choice
A recent media report claiming that the carriers could not, in theory, be deployed to the Red Sea due to crew shortages are not quite accurate. A separate media hatchet job, briefed by those who clearly want to axe these vessels, claimed carriers are obsolete and vulnerable but then argued they should be sent to the Red Sea where a US carrier is doing an admirable job.
Whether the UK needs to send a carrier to the Red Sea is a complex issue for debate. For now the US is holding the line and the presence of HMS Queen Elizabeth does not appear to be necessary although as time goes on the US may be looking for help sharing the load on its carrier fleet. A clear and not unreasonable political choice has been made to deploy the UKCSG on exercise STEADFAST DEFENDER – a long-planned major NATO Article 5 exercise. The naval aspect is primarily designed to demonstrate the ability to reinforce Europe via the trans-Atlantic deployment of forces from North America. It is a finely balanced decision about whether the UK should prioritise readiness for the defence of the Euro-Atlantic region over an active operation defending trade routes in the Middle East.
The argument that the RAF can deliver the strikes in Yemen from Cyprus should be subject to a major caveat. It was a fine feat of planning and airmanship and sorties from Akritori of similar endurance have been flown before on Op SHADER missions into Syria where there is no alternative. Sending 4 Typhoon jets on a 5,000 km round trip to drop a total of 16 bombs on two targets in Yemen was the sensible solution for a one-off demonstration of intent.
The US employed 80 TLAMs fired from 3 ships and 22 F/A-18 Super Hornets flying from the Eisenhower on the 12th January mission, hitting 60 targets at 28 locations. The RAF contribution represents less than 10% of the effects delivered from the sea. Very long-range land-based missions are not a viable solution, should a sustained weight of ordnance need to be delivered over more than a few days. A UK carrier in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden could deliver multiple sorties per day (even with a modest air group) and can react quickly to enemy actions in a way that is completely impossible from Cyprus.
Ready to sail
Both RN aircraft carriers have complete crews and both deployed last year. The ships themselves are in good shape and are meticulously maintained with the well-publicised teething problems behind them. HMS Queen Elizabeth is at high readiness while it is planned her sister ship will spend 2024 working up towards
The second frontline F-35 Unit, 809 Naval Air Squadron ‘the immortals’ was formally recommissioned on 8th December 2023 at RAF Marham. The phoenix decal on the tail will not be carried when in service as low visibility markings only are standard for operational aircraft.
Air Group
At the time of writing the UK has taken delivery of a total of 35 F-35Bs (One was lost and 3 test aircraft remain in the US). With 31 aircraft now at RAF Marham it would now be possible in extremis to generate an air group of substantially more than the 8 jets that participated in CSG23. Increased numbers of aircraft could be allocated to an operational deployment be the requirement would have to be balanced against the need for ongoing pilot training, maintenance schedules and the knock-on effects it would have in the future.
F-35 deliveries are running about a year behind the projections made in 2017 and about two years behind that schedule, the second frontline F-35 Squadron was finally stood up in December. Although RN-badged, 809 Naval Air Squadron will be jointly manned by RAF and RN personnel and operate in exactly the same way as its sister, 617 Squadron.
Aircraft will rotate between the sustainment fleet and will not be permanently allocated to a particular unit. The number of jets participating in STDE24 should indicate how well Lightning Force generation is progressing. The intention for the 2025 deployment is to carry a substantial all-British air group comprising 24 F-35s and around 14 Merlins. Activity this year should see progression towards fielding this very credible air group.
The 1,000th F-35 recently came off the Lockheed Martin production line. The next UK aircraft to be delivered (BK036 / ZM170) will be from LOT 15 and will have the Technical-Refresh (TR-3) hardware configuration. This will support the Block 4 software which will enormously expand F-35 capabilities and potential. Unfortunately the TR-3 technology is still in development and not yet ready for mass production. Deliveries are being held up and recently manufactured jets are being put into storage awaiting TR-3 to reach maturity. LM promise TR-3 development should be complete in the second quarter of this year.
From a UK perspective, Block 4 capability is crucial to support the integration of the SPEAR-3 stand-off munition and the Meteor long-range air-air-missile. Until this is ready sometime in the late 2020s, the very tip of the carrier-strike spear is limited to dropping free-fall laser-guided bombs. The integration of a heavier long-range stand-off missile such as FCASW onto F-35 remains only an unfunded aspiration. At least the MoD has now committed to back-fitting Block 4 capability to all of its existing F-35 fleet.
The Crowsnest Airborne Surveillance and Control system carried by selected Merlin Mk2s finally achieved its much-delayed Initial Operating Capability (IOC) in July last year. The radar picture and tactical data from the aircraft can now be shared with the strike group via Link 16 and fighter-control of F-35s was developed further during CSG23. The naval ASaC gap appears to be closing but without FOC declaration, Crowsnest and the aircrews are probably not yet fully ready for operations in hostile and complex environments.